AI Arena

Recently AI Arena annouced a new funding round and their $NRN token:

I believe the funding round was done in 2023 and only annoucement now.

Looking at the token, 8% airdrop at TGE, that's 80 million tokens.

total token supply is 1b tokens.

looking at the graph, first 12 months, 120 million tokens will be unlocked, bring the total to 200m tokens.

a generous assumption of $500m FDV means $0.5 per token at launch, which translates to $40m mcap at launch.

of the 8% airdropped $NRN, 4% comes from "NRN boxes", these are the boxes you get participating in weekly lottos in the AI Arena discord. There are total 10k boxes in season one, and 8k boxes have already been distributed, 2k boxes left. So for each box, we are looking at about $2k of airdrops assuming $0.5 per token

Purchasing the AI Arena mint NFTs gives you a boost on chances to win the NRN boxes, at current prices of about 3~4 ETH, you are looking at about 1 box every 2 weeks. I have 4 mint NFTs, and is averaging 1 box a week in the lotto. You need about 6 boxes worth of airdrops to break even on 1 NFT.

After the game launches, the NFT will continue to be an income producing asset, we don't know how profitable yet. After the annoucement, the NFT floor prices have not reacted to the news. Maybe ppl think margin of safety is too low for now. NFT collection's total marketcap right now is about $4m, which seems reasonable, not super undervalued.

Currently there are 20k members in the discord, majority is airdrop grinders. I think at launch, success would depend on awareness and attention. So far, narrative looks good, team is focusing on the AI aspect. The team is clearly driving a news hype cycle into the launch in late Q1, monitoring twitter growth would be a good way to judge attention growth.